Time to initiation of antenatal care and its predictors among pregnant women in Ethiopia: a multilevel mixed-effects acceleration failure time model.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the time to initiation of antenatal care (ANC) and its predictors among pregnant women in Ethiopia. DESIGN: Retrospective follow-up study using secondary data from the 2019 Ethiopian Mini-Demographic and Health Survey. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 2933 women aged 15-49 years who had ANC visits during their current or most recent pregnancy within the 5 years prior to the survey were included in this study. Women who attended prenatal appointments but whose gestational age was unknown at the first prenatal visit were excluded from the study. OUTCOME MEASURES: Participants were interviewed about the gestational age in months at which they made the first ANC visit. Multivariable mixed-effects survival regression was fitted to identify factors associated with the time to initiation of ANC. RESULTS: In this study, the estimated mean survival time of pregnant women to initiate the first ANC visit in Ethiopia was found to be 6.8 months (95% CI: 6.68, 6.95). Women whose last birth was a caesarean section (adjusted acceleration factor (AAF)=0.75; 95% CI: 0.61, 0.93) and women with higher education (AAF)=0.69; 95% CI: 0.50, 0.95) had a shorter time to initiate ANC early in the first trimester of pregnancy. However, being grand multiparous (AAF=1.31; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.63), being previously in a union (AAF=1.47; 95% CI: 1.07, 2.00), having a home birth (AAF=1.35; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.61) and living in a rural area (AAF=1.25; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.52) were the impediments to early ANC initiation. CONCLUSION: Women in this study area sought their initial ANC far later than what the WHO recommended. Therefore, healthcare providers should collaborate with community health workers to provide home-based care in order to encourage prompt ANC among hard-to-reach populations, such as rural residents and those giving birth at home.

Determinants of post-stroke depression among stroke survivors at University of Gondar Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is one of the most common causes of disability among adults. Post-stroke depression (PSD) is a frequent neuropsychiatric complication in stroke patients. Despite the increasing prevalence of stroke, there is a paucity of data on PSD and its determinants among stroke survivors in developing countries like Ethiopia. We aim to assess the factors associated with PSD in survivors of stroke. METHOD: A hospital-based unmatched case-control study was conducted during the period of February to July 2020 at University of Gondar Hospital among stroke survivors. Study subjects were recruited consecutively. Socio-demographic and clinical data were obtained from patients' interviews and medical record reviews. A diagnosis of PSD was made using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). EpiData version 3.1 was used to enter data, and SPSS version 26 was used to analyze it. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions were fitted to identify associated variables. The adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) and p-value 0.05 were used to determine the significance of the association. RESULT: A total of 240 stroke survivors were included in the study (80 cases and 160 controls). The mean age was 60.8 years (SD ± 14.3) with an equal sex distribution. Variables statistically associated with PSD were male gender (AOR = 3.5, 95% CI: 1.64-7.46 C, P-value = 0.001), subcortical location of the largest lesion (AOR = 2.42, 95% CI: 1.06-5.56, p-value = 0.036), severity of the stroke (AOR = 52.34, 95% CI:10.64-256.87, p-value = 0.000), physical disability (AOR = 5.85. 95% CI:1.94-17.65, p-value = 0.002), previous history of stroke or transient ischemic attack (AOR = 5.90, 95% CI:2.04-17.10, p-value = 0.001) and ischemic heart disease (AOR = 9.97, 95% CI:3.4-29.22, p-value = 0.000). CONCLUSION: Important factors in the occurrence of PSD in this study include prior history of stroke, physical disability, severity of the stroke, subcortical location of the lesion, male gender, and ischemic heart disease. Stroke patients with such factors need routine screening for PSD, particularly in LMICs where there is uncoordinated post-stroke care, a shortage of neurologists and mental health practitioners.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for the Prediction of Unfavorable Treatment Outcome Among Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis Patients in North West Ethiopia: An Application of Prediction Modelling.

Background: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a global problem and a health security threat, which makes "Ending the global TB epidemic in 2035" unachievable. Globally, the unfavourable treatment outcome remains unacceptably high. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a risk prediction model for unfavorable treatment outcomes in MDR-TB patients, which can be used by clinicians as a simple clinical tool in their decision-making. Objective: The objective of this study was to develop and validate a risk prediction model for the prediction of unfavorable treatment outcomes among MDR-TB patients in North-West Ethiopia. Methods: We used MDR-TB data collected from the University of Gondar and Debre Markos referral hospitals. A retrospective follow-up study was conducted and a total of 517 patients were included in the study. STATA version 16 statistical software and R version 4.0.5 were used for the analysis. Descriptive statistics were carried out. A multivariable model was fitted using all potent predictors selected by the lasso regression method. A simplified risk prediction model (nomogram) was developed based on the binomial logit-based model, and its performance was described by assessing its discriminatory power and calibration. Finally, decision curve analysis (DCA) was done to evaluate the clinical and public health impact of the developed model. Results: The developed nomogram comprised six predictors: baseline anemia, major adverse event, comorbidity, age, marital status, and treatment supporter. The model has a discriminatory power of 0.753 (95% CI: 0.708, 0.798) and calibration test of (P-value = 0.695). It was internally validated by bootstrapping method, and it has a relatively corrected discrimination performance (AUC = 0.744, 95CI: 0.699, 0.788). The optimism coefficient was found to be 0.009. The decision curve analysis showed the net benefit of the model as threshold probabilities varied. Conclusion: The developed nomogram can be used for individualized prediction of unfavorable treatment outcomes in MDR-TB patients for it has a satisfactory level of accuracy and good calibration. The model is clinically interpretable and was found to have added benefits in clinical practice.

A Score to Predict the Risk of Major Adverse Drug Reactions Among Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis Patients in Southern Ethiopia, 2014-2019.

Background: Adverse events (AE) contribute to poor drug adherence and withdrawal, which contribute to a low treatment success rate. AE are commonly reported among multi-drug resistance tuberculosis (MDR-TB) patients in Ethiopia. However, predictors of AE among MDR-TB patients were limited in Ethiopia. Thus, the current study aimed to develop and validate a score to predict the risks of major AE among MDR-TB patients in Southern Ethiopia. Methods: A retrospective follow-up study design was employed among MDR-TB patients from 2014-2019 in southern Ethiopia at selected hospitals. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm was used to select the most potent predictors of the outcome. The adverse event risk score was built based on the multivariable logistic regression analysis. Discriminatory power and calibration were checked to evaluate the performance of the model. Bootstrapping method with 100 repetitions was used for internal model validation. Results: History of baseline khat use, long-term drug regimen use, and having coexisting disorders (co-morbidity) were predictors of AEs. The score has a satisfactory discriminatory power (AUC = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.82) and a modest calibration (Prob > chi2 = 0.2043). It was found to have the same c-statistics after validation by bootstrapping method of 100 repetitions with replacement. Conclusion: A history of baseline khat use, co-morbidity, and long-term drug regimen use are helpful to predict individual risk of major adverse events in MDR-TB patients with a satisfactory degree of accuracy (AUC = 0.77).

Evaluation of Anticoagulation Control among Patients Taking Warfarin in University of Gondar Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia.

INTRODUCTION: Warfarin is a widely used oral anticoagulant in clinical practice. It has variable intraindividual and interindividual dose response and a narrow therapeutic index. Therefore, it requires frequent and regular international normalized ratio (INR) determination to maintain the INR within the therapeutic range. The study evaluated parameters of anticoagulation control among patients on warfarin. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted at University of Gondar hospital. A consecutive sampling method was used to recruit study subjects. The anticoagulation control was evaluated by determining the proportion of desired INRs and the proportion of time spent in the therapeutic range (TTR). Logistic regression analysis was used to identify associated factors with adequate TTR. A P value <0.05 was used to declare significant association. RESULT: A total of 338 study subjects were included in the study. The mean age of patients was 48.8 (SD = 16.4) years. Atrial fibrillation was the commonest indication for warfarin therapy. One-third (33%) of study subjects achieved the desired INRs of 2.0-3.0, while about one-tenth (13%) of patients attained good INR control (TTR ≥ 65%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed no significant association of sociodemographic and clinical characteristics with good TTR outcome. CONCLUSION: The level of anticoagulation control with warfarin among study subjects was very low. The authors recommend to implement a validated warfarin-dose titration protocol and to establish anticoagulation clinics to mitigate the low anticoagulation level.

Incidence of peripheral intravenous catheter phlebitis and its associated factors among patients admitted to University of Gondar hospital, Northwest Ethiopia: a prospective, observational study.

BACKGROUND: Phlebitis, inflammation of tunica intima of venous wall, occurred in 13-56% of hospitalized patients. It is characterized by pain, erythema, swelling, palpable venous cord, and pussy discharge at catheter site. Cannula-related blood stream infection (CRBSI) is recognized complication of phlebitis. Adverse outcomes of phlebitis embrace patient discomfort, longer hospital stay and higher health care cost. This study aimed to determine the incidence and associated factors of peripheral vein phlebitis among hospitalized patients. METHODS: A hospital-based prospective, observational study was conducted between April 1 and August 31, 2020 at University of Gondar hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. A consecutive sampling method was used to recruit 384 patients. Patients were interviewed to obtain socio-demographic data. Relevant medical history and laboratory parameters were obtained from patients' records. Presence and severity of phlebitis was identified by Jackson's Visual Infusion Phlebitis (VIP) Scoring System. The Data were entered into EPI Info version 4.4.1 and transported to SPSS version 20 for analysis. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify associated factors with occurrence of phlebitis. P-value < 0.05 was used to declare significant association. RESULT: A total of 384 study subjects were included in the study. The mean age of study subjects was 46 years, with a range of 19 to 96 years. The incidence of phlebitis was 70% among study subjects. Mid-stage (grade 3) and advanced-stage (grade 4) phlebitis were noticed in 136/268 (51%) and 89/268 (33%) respectively. Odds of developing phlebitis were twofold higher in patients with catheter-in situ > 96 h (AOR = 2.261, 95% CI 1.087-4.702, P-value = 0.029) as compared to those with catheter dwell time < 72 h. Female patients were 70% (AOR = 0.293, 95% CI 0.031-0.626, P-value = 0.002) lower than male patients with risk of developing phlebitis. Patients who use infusates were 53% (AOR = 0.472, 95% CI 0.280-0.796, P-value = 0.005) less likely to develop phlebitis as compared to those who didn't use infusates. CONCLUSION: The cannula must be reviewed on daily basis, and it should be removed if it stayed later than 96 h.

Unfavorable Treatment Outcome and Its Predictors Among Patients with Multidrug-Resistance Tuberculosis in Southern Ethiopia in 2014 to 2019: A Multi-Center Retrospective Follow-Up Study.

BACKGROUND: According to the 2017 global report, Ethiopia is among the top 30 high tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) burden countries. However, studies on MDR-TB treatment outcomes in Southern Ethiopia was very limited. Therefore, the study was aimed at determining the unfavorable treatment outcome and its predictors among patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Southern Ethiopia MDR-TB treatment centers. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A retrospective follow-up study was conducted in Southern Ethiopia MDR-TB treatment initiating centers. Three hundred sixty-three patients were included in the study. Kaplan-Meier failure curve, median time, and Log rank test were used to present the descriptive findings. Then, a Cox regression analysis was used to identify predictors of unfavorable treatment outcome. The strength of the association was reported using an adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) and a 95% confidence interval (CI). Finally, the Cox Snell residual test was used to check the goodness of fit. RESULTS: For the entire cohort, the unfavorable treatment outcome was 23.68% (19.29, 28.09). Hospitalization for care (AHR = 2.07; 95% CI = 1.21, 3.63), male sex (AHR = 1.85; 95% CI = 1.002, 3.42), attending tertiary education (AHR = 0.31; 95% CI = 0.11, 0.91), and those with low hemoglobin (AHR = 2.89; 95% CI = 1.55, 5.38) were predictors for unfavorable treatment outcome. CONCLUSION: The unfavorable treatment outcome was higher compared with the national goal of END-TB by 2020. Hospitalizations for care, male sex, and low hemoglobin level increased the hazard of the unfavorable treatment outcome. On the other hand, attending territory education decreased the hazard of the unfavorable treatment outcome.

Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Symptoms and Its Associated Factors Among Residents of Gondar Town During the Early Stage of COVID-19 Pandemic.

PURPOSE: An acute respiratory disease caused by the novel coronavirus disease (COVID) was identified in late 2019. COVID-19 triggered a wide range of psychological problems, such as anxiety, depression, and stress. However, studies on mental health status in developing countries including Ethiopia related to COVID-19 are very limited. Therefore, this study was aimed at determining the magnitude of depression, anxiety, and stress, and their associated factors among Gondar town population during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 660 residents of Gondar town in April 2020. A multi-stage sampling technique was employed to select study participants. A 21 item depression, anxiety, and stress scale (DASS-21) was used. Variables with a p-value <0.05 in the final model were declared as statistically significant. Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit test was used to check the model fitness. RESULTS: In this study, the prevalence of depression was 32.0% (95% CI: 28.4-35.5), anxiety 25.8% (95% CI: 22.4-29.1), and stress 14.7% (95% CI: 12.0-17.4), respectively. The odds of developing depression was higher among female respondents (AOR=2.30, 95% CI: 1.01, 3.83) and ever smokers (AOR=2.8, 95 CI: 1.23, 6.28) as compared to their counterparts. Besides, history of medical illness and ever smoking increase the odds of anxiety by 2.3 (AOR=2.3; 95% CI: 1.42-3.76), and 2.8 (AOR=2.8; 95% CI: 1.23-3.83), respectively. Furthermore, being unemployed and family size of <5 increase the odds of stress by 2.1 (AOR=2.1; 95% CI: 1.17-3.83) and 1.8 (AOR=1.8; 95% CI: 1.09-2.81), respectively. CONCLUSION: In this study, the overall depression, anxiety, and stress were significantly high. There are number of factors associated with depression, anxiety, and stress. Designing and implementing tailored strategies for COVID-19 prevention and control could be supremely important to reduce mental health problems in the community.

High Mortality from Blood Stream Infection in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Is Due to Antimicrobial Resistance.

BACKGROUND: Managing blood stream infection in Africa is hampered by lack of bacteriological support needed for antimicrobial stewardship, and background data needed for empirical treatment. A combined pro- and retrospective approach was used to overcome thresholds in clinical research in Africa. METHODS: Outcome and characteristics including age, HIV infection, pancytopenia and bacteriological results were studied in 292 adult patients with two or more SIRS criteria using univariate and confirming multivariate logistic regression models. Expected randomly distributed resistance covariation was compared with observed co-resistance among gram-negative enteric bacteria in 92 paediatric blood culture isolates that had been harvested in the same hospital during the same period of time. RESULTS: Mortality was fivefold increased among patients with positive blood culture results [50.0% vs. 9.8%; OR 11.24 (4.38-25.88), p < 0.0001], and for this group of patients mortality was significantly associated with antimicrobial resistance [OR 23.28 (3.3-164.4), p = 0.002]. All 11 patients with Enterobacteriaceae resistant to 3rd. generation cephalosporins died. Eighty-nine patients had pancytopenia grade 3-4. Among patients with negative blood culture results, mortality was significantly associated with pancytopenia [OR 3.12 (1.32-7.39), p = 0.01]. HIV positivity was not associated with increased mortality. Antimicrobial resistance that concerned gram-negative enteric bacteria, regardless of species, was characterized by co-resistance between third generation cephalosporins, gentamicin, chloramphenicol, and co-trimoxazole. CONCLUSION: Mortality was strongly associated with growth of bacteria resistant to empirical treatment, and these patients were dead or dying when bacteriological reports arrived. Because of co-resistance, alternative efficient antibiotics would not have been available in Ethiopia for 8/11 Enterobacteriaceae-infected patients with isolates resistant to third generation cephalosporins. Strong and significant resistance covariation between 3rd. generation cephalosporins, chloramphenicol, gentamicin, and co-trimoxazole was identified. Pronounced pancytopenia was common and associated with increased mortality. HIV positive patients had no excess mortality.

Thalassemia syndrome.

A 16 years old female patient diagnosed to have thalassemia syndrome in Black lion Hospital based on clinical presentation, complete blood count, peripheral morphology and bone marrow findings.